1. Field of the Invention
The present disclosure relates to scientometric data analysis systems and methods and more specifically to a system and method for analyzing data related to an emerging technology and determining the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the technology at any given time.
2. Description of the Related Art
Scientometrics is defined as the science of measuring and analyzing science. In practice, scientometrics is often accomplished using bibliometrics, a measurement of scientific publications. Modern scientometrics is mostly based on the work of Derek J. de Solla Price and Eugene Garfield. The latter founded the Institute for Scientific Information which is heavily used for scientometric analysis. One significant finding in the field is a principle of cost escalation to the effect that achieving further findings at a given level of importance grow exponentially more costly in the expenditure of effort and resources.
With today's ability to access extremely large datasets through electronic means, such as the internet, it can be difficult to determine if a trend is developing in a certain area, sector or technology. Disparate datasets (e.g., patents, papers, articles, citations, product offerings, etc. . . . ) are typically interspersed with one another in the search results, so it's difficult to understand what level of maturity a particular technology is. This becomes even more difficult as an emerging technology matures and ever-more data becomes available for analysis by the interested party. For example, automobile technology continues to evolve and the amount of data continues to be overwhelming. In some instances, it's not uncommon to find hundreds of thousands of individual data points while searching for a topic of interest. The ability to identify trends and the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of a technology is often impossible due to the volume of available information and its disparate nature.
Government agencies such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Defense (DoD), and numerous commercial entities have developed sets of graded definitions/descriptions of stages of TRL. An example of TRL 1-9 descriptions follow below.
TRL 1: Basic principles observed and reported. Lowest level of technology readiness. Scientific research begins to be translated into applied research and development. Examples might include paper studies of a technology's basic properties.
TRL 2: Technology concept and/or application formulated. Invention begins. Once basic principles are observed, practical applications can be invented. Applications are speculative and there may be no proof or detailed analysis to support the assumptions. Examples are limited to analytic studies.
TRL 3: Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof of concept. Active research and development is initiated. This includes analytical studies and laboratory studies to physically validate analytical predictions of separate elements of the technology. Examples include components that are not yet integrated or representative.
TRL 4: Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment. Basic technological components are integrated to establish that they will work together. This is relatively “low fidelity” compared to the eventual system. Examples include integration of “ad hoc” hardware in the laboratory.
TRL 5: Component and/or breadboard validation in relevant environment. Fidelity of breadboard technology increases significantly. The basic technological components are integrated with reasonably realistic supporting elements so it can be tested in a simulated environment. Examples include “high fidelity” laboratory integration of components.
TRL 6: System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment. Representative model or prototype system, which is well beyond that of TRL 5, is tested in a relevant environment. Represents a major step up in a technology's demonstrated readiness. Examples include testing a prototype in a high-fidelity laboratory environment or in simulated operational environment.
TRL 7: System prototype demonstration in an operational environment. Prototype near, or at, planned operational system. Represents a major step up from TRL 6, requiring demonstration of an actual system prototype in an operational environment such as an aircraft, vehicle, or space. Examples include testing the prototype in a test bed aircraft.
TRL 8: Actual system completed and qualified through test and demonstration. Technology has been proven to work in its final form and under expected conditions. In almost all cases, this TRL represents the end of true system development. Examples include developmental test and evaluation of the system in its intended weapon system to determine if it meets design specifications.
TRL 9: Actual system proven through successful mission operations. Actual application of the technology in its final form and under mission conditions, such as those encountered in operational test and evaluation. Examples include using the system under operational mission conditions.
The identification of the emergence of a new technology creates funding opportunities for researchers and helps business leaders predict when capital expenditures, infrastructure improvements, and hiring is needed. It's also important for businesses to know when a technology has matured enough to evaluate what opportunities exist for expanding into the repair and service businesses. A decision concerning a financial investment in a technology will benefit from knowing what the TRL is. There are many other technical and business-oriented decisions that can be influenced by knowing the present TRL of a technology.
What is needed is a system and method for easily identifying new technology trends, and for developing a technology evolution model of a technology from disparate data sets.